Analisi quantitativa dei rischi di progetto

An online seminar that dealt with the current topic of project risk management, and presented the quantitative analysis of project risks

Most projects are subject to additional costs and delays compared to the project plan. Accurate and timely identification of delays, once they occur, combined with a forecast Accurate future “performance” is the key to significantly reducing the risks of time and budget overruns.

This is the key to effective project control.

It is in this process that risk analysis methodologies, implemented with advanced risk analysis software, can provide concrete benefits.

What is a quantitative project risk analysis

At the design stage, quantitative risk analysis allows you to determine the reliability of the project baseline, and allows you to define more accurate drawer values ​​related to specific phases and activities of the project. If costs can be associated with activities, the drawer estimate also includes costs. Thus, the quantitative analysis of project risks makes it possible to define a probabilistic range of times and costs, allowing a definition of the case that takes into account the internal correlation between time and costs.

In the project execution phase, proper measurement of progress and assessment of current risks make it possible to predict future performance with a greater degree of certainty: completion date, milestones, costs upon completion, estimates of temporary extensions due to changes, effects of events such as delivery delays, delays in approved procedures or, In the procurement cycle, and in general, of any event that may affect the continuation of the “works”.

Traditionally the quantitative approach has been hampered precisely by the lack of agile tools for probabilistic modeling of risks and numerical simulation (Monte Carlo algorithm); Today, professional risk management applications in the project, such as Acumen Risk, have overcome the above difficulties and make it possible to easily perform “probabilistic” risk analysis very efficiently and easily. In detail and / or logic, excess constraints, etc., in order to arrive at a solid and complete plan, detailed and good enough.Built, essential for risk analysis.

Topics of the online seminar

At the online seminar we held on November 16th we analyzed a real case of a subway line EPC project. Starting from the starting point of the project, several simulations of the project timing will be performed to take into account uncertainties and some risks typical of such projects. The simulation will make it possible to define the probable ranges of project times and costs. The webinar will focus on the risk model process, also based on an existing risk register, and on the interpretation of the results obtained through Acumen’s flexibility. Also, the qualitative analysis of the complex schedule consisting of hundreds of activities will be presented, using specific software features. After a presentation of about thirty minutes there will be an in-depth discussion with the participants.

Reflections after the webinar

The relationship between risks and project performance is certainly intuitive. Adopting a risk management process helps to take a proactive approach to risk management, thus improving project performance.

How is this interaction shaped? Is it possible to estimate the probability curve of the estimate taking into account the probabilistic variability of the project schedules? Also, how are risks attributed to specific project phases? What is the role of WBS in quantitative risk analysis? How to compare different scenarios? How does quantitative analysis allow for a more accurate definition of a drawer situation?

However, it is less intuitive to understand that without quantitative analysis it is impossible to assess the effects of risks and uncertainties on future performance. This necessarily requires a project schedule. Moreover, the relationship between time and cost risks must be taken into account.

We talked about these topics in a webinar; You can register here Link.




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